大象或金鱼? 发货人 and carriers both say “we have long memories” when the power dynamics change in freight markets. 然而,当容量紧张时,载体最像金鱼. 他们往往有短暂的记忆和行为机会主义, 根据麻省理工学院技术中心的研究 & 物流(MIT CTL).

In November 2020 an MIT CTL research team published a paper based on analysis of a large dataset of freight transactions. One conclusion was that strong shipper-carrier relationships in a soft market are not predictive of how carriers will perform in the next tight cycle.

发货人 that worked hard to maintain relationships when the market turned soft around 4Q 2018 and continued through 1Q 2020, might have expected that carriers would show more loyalty when the market tightened in the second half of 2020. 根据最近的一份报告,目前的生产能力是前所未有的紧张 CCJ.

孤立的行为
麻省理工学院CTL研究人员分析的数据集超过1个.9 million dry van truckload freight transactions provided by a third-party logistics company. The transactions took place from September 2015 to May 2019 and included loads offered by 71 shippers to 1,650年签约贝博app体育外围.

Graduate assistant and PhD candidate Angela Acocella led the research and  isolated the strength of shipper-carrier relationships to a single variable — the load acceptance ratio of carriers.

托运人合同一般不要求承运人接受所有的装货报价. 他们只制定车道和定价协议. 当市场收紧, carriers tend to reject a greater percentage of load offers for pre-negotiated contract rates.

安吉拉·阿科塞拉,麻省理工学院交通中心的研究生助理 & 后勤,博士生.The study looked for evidence that carriers would reciprocate loyalty to shippers in the next tight period, 在负载接受率方面, 在疲软的货运市场中,他们获得了相对较高的运费之后.

麻省理工学院的CTL论文引用了一组研究,显示租用卡车载货承运人, 平均, 接受托运人约72%的货运报价, and that shippers fulfill 6% of their loads using spot capacity when contract carriers reject loads. 现货市场的平均价格通常比合同价格高出23 - 35%.

Researchers used statistical models to find the degree by which shippers and primary carriers held to their freight contracts when market conditions changed from soft to tight. The analysis showed that favorable soft market behaviors of shippers did not significantly impact the load acceptance rate by carriers during tight market periods.

The average weekly load acceptance rate when the freight market went from soft to tight around Q3 of 2017, 例如, 是81.9%. 录取率降至68.2018年第四季度,当市场从紧俏转向疲软时,市场占有率为5%. Meanwhile, the average weekly cost per load increased between these periods from $1,156 to $1,420.

展望未来的价格
When markets were tight the MIT CTL study found that price is not the only tool that helped shippers increase load acceptance rates. 发货人 that offered more consistent freight volumes and lead times for orders were also successful. Based on interviews with truckload carriers the researchers found the sweet spot for lead times is three days before pickup.

另外, carriers responded with higher acceptance rates for loads that had reduced delays at pickup and delivery locations, 是什么帮助运营商提高利润和留住司机.

麻省理工学院的CTL研究没有2020年的数据,但Acocella说 CCJ 她希望得到这样的结果, 对于负载接受率和其他变量, 会是“热门市场通常会发生什么?,由于COVID-19大流行,预计会出现一些异常.

在过去的一年, most shippers have been trying to ensure their rates stay competitive by “updating their rates more frequently, 做更多的小投标, 并确保他们改变行为来跟随市场,”她说.

Larger shippers tend to be better insulated from the impacts of the market and maintain better carrier relationships since they can offer carriers more volume and consistency, 艾克希拉指出.

作为一个顶级的沃尔玛运营商, 贝勒货运公司能够在2020年扩大其关系58.5% in terms of load count across Walmart’s dry, refrigerated and consolidated freight networks.

由于产能紧张, 托运人和货运经纪人正设法让承运人与他们做生意. 这里展示的是位于德克萨斯州奥斯汀市的arrival Logistics的销售楼层. 贝勒货运公司曾四次被沃尔玛评为年度最佳货运公司, 并于2021年连续第二年获得年度多元化载体奖. This award category recognizes a top-performing third party logistics carrier that is a woman, 少数人或资深人士拥有的公司.

Baylor Trucking held fast to contracted rates and lane commitments despite an unprecedented surge in demand for the company’s services during the COVID-19 pandemic, 说贝勒, 米兰主席, 印第安纳州.的舰队.

“We were able to grow our relationship with Walmart when America needed us most,” Baylor said. “贝博app体育西班牙总是想做正确的事情. For us this means honoring our lane and rate commitments with customers and making sure that our professional drivers always know we are there to support them.”

展望未来, Acocella said that shippers will want price concessions from carriers when they negotiate future contracts, 自2020年和2021年以来,它们的交通预算超出了比例. 然而,这是有权衡的.

“发货人 trying to cut down on their budget from the 2020 timeframe might go for lower priced options, 也许看不到他们期望看到的表演,”她说.

代理的角度来看
Freight brokers are also dealing with the impacts of tight capacity in the freight market. This is leading to new strategies and technologies to make it easier for carriers to do business with them.

“(运营商)必须愿意与你合作. 做生意要容易,贾斯汀·弗里斯说, 到达物流的首席运力官, 奥斯汀的一家快速发展的货运经纪公司, 德州. “如果这不是无缝的,简单和高效的,他们可以去其他地方.”

到达 Logistics recently added a portal for carriers to book loads and make offers to streamline freight transactions.到达 Logistics recently added a new Carrier EDGE online freight portal with “book it now” capabilities that enable its core carriers to instantly book freight. 贝博app体育外围也有 option to use a “Make an Offer” feature to submit an alternative, preferred rate completely online.

The company also has book it now features through integrations with the major freight marketplaces.

“We are trying to bring together a platform that makes it easier and more efficient for everyone to do business with us,” Michael Senftleber,首席技术官 到达.

最近,arrival还整合了Triumph Pay的支付处理平台. Any carrier that wants to use a Quick Pay option to receive a two-day payment for a 2% fee can do so through Triumph Pay’s platform, along with having visibility to receivables from other shippers and freight brokers they do business with.

“这是贝博app体育西班牙与贝博app体育外围见面的另一个地方,Frees在谈到Triumph Pay的整合时说.

图片来源:CCJ,原创文章发表在这里: http://www.ccjdigital.com/business/article/15065663/how-do-carrier-behaviors-change-in-hot-freight-markets

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